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Kentucky Oaks 2023 Picks: Wet Paint can continue to impress
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Wed 03/05/2023 - 08:37 EDT
The $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks is the biggest race of the year for three-year-old fillies. With an overflow field of 14 plus three more ready to draw in if a horse has to scratch, the race is an exciting betting opportunity. Find out how to maximize your Kentucky Oaks score by betting the right horses and choosing the most profitable Kentucky betting site!
The Kentucky Oaks is coming up at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 5! Horseplayers around the world look forward to betting the Kentucky Oaks, and it’s no wonder why. The $1.25 million, Grade 1 race draws a big field of the best sophomore fillies in the country every year to tackle the challenge of 1 ⅛ miles over the Churchill dirt.
The Oaks is one of the most historic races in Kentucky: it has been held every year since 1875, just like the Kentucky Derby. Some of the all-time greats of the sport have won the Kentucky Oaks, from the immortal Modesty all the way to recent stars like Rachel Alexandra and Secret Oath.
Betting the Kentucky Oaks Online
Though seeing the Kentucky Oaks live at Churchill is a thrilling experience, you can be part of the action from anywhere by betting at an online sportsbook! Our experts have reviewed the best online horse betting sites, so you can quickly and easily choose the best one for you. All of our recommended sites have market-leading odds, trusted payouts, and smooth interfaces.
We also give you insight on each site’s racebook bonuses. Different sites offer incentives like deposit bonuses, sign-up bonuses, and rebates that are more profitable for different kinds of bets or stakes. Taking a few minutes now to choose the best bonuses for how you like to play can mean hundreds or even thousands of extra dollars for your Kentucky Oaks bankroll!
Kentucky Oaks Contenders
The official field for the 2023 Kentucky Oaks with post positions, jockeys and trainers, and morning lines is:
- Mimi Kakushi (Salem bin Ghadayer / Mickael Barzalona) - 20/1
- The Alys Look (Brad Cox / Javier Castellano) - 15/1
- Gambling Girl (Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz, Jr.) - 15/1
- Southlawn (Norm Casse / Reylu Gutierrez) - 8/1
- Wonder Wheel (Mark Casse / Joel Rosario) - 12/1
- Botanical (Brad Cox / Chris Landeros) - 4/1
- Wet Paint (Brad Cox / Flavien Prat) - 5/2
- Promiseher America (Raymond Handal / Jorge Vargas, Jr.) - 30/1
- And Tell Me Nolise (Peter Miller / Ramon Vazquez) - 15/1
- Flying Connection (Todd Fincher / Florent Geroux) - 15/1
- Defining Purpose (Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez, Jr.) - 12/1
- Dorth Vader (Michael Yates / Luis Saez) - 20/1
- Affirmative Lady (Graham Motion / John Velazquez) - 10/1
- Pretty Mischievous (Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione) - 10/1
- Taxed (Randy Morse / Rafael Bejarano) - 20/1 - ALSO ELIGIBLE
- Julia Shining (Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez) - 15/1 - ALSO ELIGIBLE
- Hoosier Philly (Tom Amoss / Edgar Morales) - 30/1 - ALSO ELIGIBLE
If horses scratch from the Oaks field before 9:00 a.m. Eastern on Friday, then Taxed, Julia Shining, and Hooser Philly can get into the field, in that order of priority. If Julia Shining draws into the field, Luis Saez will ride her and Jose Ortiz takes over the mount on Dorth Vader.
Remember that the morning line is not a guaranteed price. In fact, it is just Churchill’s best guess about the on-track odds. If you bet at the racetrack, the price will change until the horses break from the gate. Your best bet is to play the Kentucky Oaks at an online racebook, since they let you lock in your odds on major races the moment you bet!
 |  |  | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wet Paint | +300 | +350 | +350 |
| Botanical | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Southlawn | +700 | +900 | +900 |
| Affirmative Lady | +1000 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Pretty Mischievous | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Wonder Wheel | +1200 | +1300 | +1300 |
Kentucky Oaks Best Bet
Sometimes the favorite is the favorite for good reason, and so is the case with Wet Paint. She romped in a trio of points races at Oaklawn, a circuit whose performance in the Kentucky Oaks is improving in recent years. She proved in the Fantasy (G3) that she can shine on a dry track, but her previous two wins came on a wet track. The Oaks is likely to come up wet, too.
She has other things in her favor, too. Her trainer Brad Cox has won two editions of the Kentucky Oaks already. She drew well in the 7-hole. Her Martha Washington proved that she does not have to drop back to the clouds. Finally, her pedigree looks like it will handle the last half-furlong with ease. Wet Paint looks like a strong all-around Oaks candidate.
Kentucky Oaks Bet-Against
As strong as Wet Paint is at a short price, the other short-priced horse in the race is a toss: Botanical. Yes, she won her two points preps impressively. But, not only were those on the Tapeta at Turfway, but she has only ever run on synthetic and turf. At a short price against a field with so many proven nine-furlong dirt horses, boost your value by tossing Botanical.
Other Kentucky Oaks Contenders
Even though Affirmative Lady was a maiden through her entire two-year-old year, trainer Graham Motion tried her in stakes and she finished a close second in the sloppy, nine-furlong Demoiselle (G2). She stretches back out to that distance after two strong efforts in Florida, a maiden win and a score in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). The outside post raises ground loss concerns, but she is tactical enough to have a good chance to work a trip.
The concern about Southlawn is the fact that she came up flat in a pair of races at Churchill Downs last year; she may not like the surface. On the other hand, maybe she just wasn’t as good at age two as she is now at three. She looks like a new horse after a pair of dominant victories in New Orleans, and if she can bring that to Kentucky she will be running late.
Kentucky Oaks Longshots
Promiseher America intrigues at a massive price. She took a huge step forward when upsetting the Gazelle (G3), and the worry is whether she regresses. But, at the price? Look on the bright side. That was her first race at two turns, and her pedigree is replete with influences to get better with time and distance. There is a good chance the Gazelle was just the real Promiseher America coming out, and if she maintains or improves second off the lay, she will pay huge.
Gambling Girl is not much of a win candidate, with her only victories being against New York-breds. However, she kept putting up second- and third-place finishes against Oaks prep horses in nine-furlong races, over both fast and rain-affected going. She is consistent, versatile, and a good prospect to rack up yet another underneath share in the Kentucky Oaks.
Kentucky Oaks Best Bets
Now you have everything you need to know to place your bets on the Kentucky Oaks online. The best bets for the 2023 Kentucky Oaks are:
- $30 to win: #7 Wet Paint
- $10 to win/place/show: #8 Promiseher America
- $1 exacta key: #7 Wet Paint with #3 Gambling Girl, #8 Promiseher America
- $1 trifecta key: #7 Wet Paint with #3 Gambling Girl, #8 Promiseher America, #13 Affirmative Lady
- $1 superfecta key: #7 Wet Paint with #3 Gambling Girl, #4 Southlawn, #8 Promiseher America, #13 Affirmative Lady
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